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Week 4 Analysis : Snaps, Stats, Targets & More
Week 1, Week 2, Week 3
At this point in the season we're finally starting to see consistency and trends. The purpose of this post is to highlight some of these, and help you make decisions around starts, sits, trades, and waiver wire management.
Los Angeles RamsAt this point in the season it's time to take seriously the argument that the Rams offense can produce 3 fantasy relevant WRs. Just last year we saw the Vikings with Diggs and Thielen, and they also had Kyle Rudolph. The Rams don't involve TEs much in the passing game which means that volume is shifted to the WRs. Cupp had the best day against the Vikings, but take a look at the averages to date this season:
|Player||Avg Snap %||Avg Targets||Avg PPR Pts||Total TDs|
Cooks isn't swimming in touchdowns but with 452 yards on the season he's staying very competitive when it comes to fantasy. Cooks is also Goff's second favorite target within 20 yards of the end zone.
|Player||Targets Inside the 20|
All three receivers are seeing similar utilization and you should feel confident starting any of them. This offense will continue to produce as they face more NFCW teams and other weak defenses.
Minnesota VikingsAldrick Robinson scored 2 TDs in Week 4 agains the Rams, but you should not be racing to waivers to pick him up. He's played 2 games and less than 10 snaps per game. He has 3 targets, 3 receptions, and 2 TDs. He was simply in the right place at the right time. The more concerning aspect of this offense is the run game. Taking Week 3 out of the picture since Dalvin Cook missed time, here's where we're at:
|Player||Category||Week 1||Week 2||Week 4|
Neither of the lead running backs on this team have shown any kind of significant fantasy production. Cook's Week 4 performance could be attributed to him being eased in after injury, or to game script forcing the Vikings the pass. In any case, I don't believe that Cook is a must start every week. The Vikings play the Eagles in Week 5, Saints in Week 8, and Bears in Week 11. These are all matchups where I'd avoid starting Cook. For non-Cook owners, this might be a good opportunity to buy low on Cook for a guy who could still have a lot of value this year.
New York GiantsLet's take a look at Sterling Shepard's production. Notice the spike in Week 3, which is when Evan Engram left early in the game.
|Sterling Shepard||Week 1||Week 2||Week 3||Week 4|
In 2017, the top two red zone targets for the NYG were Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard, who were targeted 11 times each, inside the 20. Shepherd leads the team this year already with 6 targets in 4 weeks. With Evan Engram potentially being sidelined 1-2 more weeks, Shepard is a must start. The Giants have been using OBJ as a decoy on the opposite side of the end zone from Shepard. Defenses are gravitating toward him opening things up for Shepard.
Chicago BearsTrubisky played like a HOF QB against the Buccaneers, throwing touchdowns to nearly every receiver on the field. Anthony Miller was/is out with a shoulder injury, and he was playing around 38 snaps/week. Interestingly enough, his snaps didn't go to the play makers we saw in Week 4. Most of his snaps got distributed to Kevin White and Dion Sims who did absolutely nothing. Snaps also didn't matter much this game with how efficient the offense played. The more interesting component was the target % distribution.
Here's a look at how Target % has changed since Week 1 (Percentage of snaps played where player was targeted by a pass attempt.)
|Player||Week 1||Week 2||Week 3||Week 4|
Cohen had an enormous and likely unsustainable spike in Week 4, but the two other trend lines you can draw here are that Robinson's share is slowly trending down, and Gabriel's is trending up. Everyone expected Allen Robinson to come in and immediately be the WR1 on this team, but Nagy and Trubisky seem content running the offense through Gabriel and Cohen, at least when it comes to passing.
Last point, there have been a ton of threads on Howard saying not to worry, but I think we're seeing that Howard hasn't been able to get much done on the ground and the offense has had to adapt to be successful. Howard has 64 carries, 203 yards, 3.2 YPC. Cohen is 27/139/5.1. It's hard to think that Howard is going to suddenly break out some time later this year, especially since 3 of the 4 games were against bottom 15 run defenses.
Jacksonville JaguarsThis nightmare crew of wide receivers has been impossible to predict for fantasy - and there doesn't appear to be any end in sight. Not much to say here other than to highlight the fact that we've seen a different receiver shine each week.
|Player||Week 1||Week 2||Week 3||Week 4|
If you really want to pick 1 receiver to start on this team, it has to be Dede Westbrook in PPR. He leads the team in targets, receptions, yards, catch rate, targets on 3rd down, etc. He is also tied for 5th among all receivers in Average Yards of Separation (4.6) per target. Really the biggest things holding him back are the 2 fumbles he has this year, and the fact that he has no red zone targets.
Houston TexansIf you're a Lamar Miller truther and drafted him again this year, you might want to consider trading him soon. The most exciting thing about owning Miller this year was that D'onta Foreman started the year out on IR, giving Miller owners about 6 weeks of production with little competition. Here are some points you should consider:
- In Week 4, Alfred Blue split carries (13) and snaps (40) with Miller (14/46).
- 23 running backs have 4 or more carries inside the 10 yard line. Lamar Miller is the only one without a touchdown.
- Lamar Miller has played 206 snaps which is good for the 6th most among all running backs. He is the 30th ranked RB in PPR and 28th in standard.
- 38 running backs have played at least 100 snaps this year. 34 of them have scored more points per 100 snaps than Lamar Miller.
My PodcastLast, I just want to take a minute to plug my fantasy football podcast that myself and 2 others record each week. We're amateurs about 9 weeks into this thing, but if you enjoy a discussion of the games you can check us out at Raising The Bar - A Fantasy Football Podcast. We're available on all the major podcast apps/networks.
Windows Phone 8.1 & 2014 updates community wish list
I think if Microsoft is able to pull of this whole list by the end of 2014 and can reach 300,000 apps I don't think critics, tech websites or fanboys of other OS' can have many complaints about Windows Phone, what do you think?
- Voice assistant
- Ability to change settings with voice eg. "Turn Wi-Fi on" or "Turn off bluetooth"
- Ability to set different levels of volume for texts, apps, ringtones, media, alarms etc.
- A hub / menu with a list of latest notifications
- Toast notifications for built-in social accounts (Actual notifications for notifications that appear in the people hub)
- Quick access to settings such as rotation lock, brightness, battery saver, wifi, Bluetooth etc. within a menu, something similar to iOS7 control centre but consistent with Windows Phone UI
- Quiet mode - Option to disable all notifications between certain times (Feature is in Windows 8.1)
- Ability to create folders in Photos hub
- Allow more apps integration with the People Hub e.g. Instagram or SnapChat (When they launch)
- Xbox One connectivity - Smartglass built-in, Options to send Video/Music straight to Xbox One
- Xbox Video app
- Xbox Music UI updated to be consistent with Windows 8.1 app
- Xbox Music full cloud sync across all Windows devices
- Better Video playback controls, ability to scrub through video to find a certain point
- Separate Music store from the App store
- Ability to re-download all apps or select multiple apps to be downloaded at a time
- Improvements to Bing search and Apps
- Universal search
- New features for office
- Ability to attach files in emails
- IE11 Mobile
- InPrivate Browsing
- Cloud sync tabs with Windows 8.1
- Reading List
- Calculator - updated to match Windows 8.1 Calculator app features
- Alarms/Clock app updated to match Windows 8.1 Alarms app features
- Sound Recorder
- Movie maker (Some form of video editing app)
- Full backup to computer or further backup features with SkyDrive such as save data for all apps
- Ability to store/access all files (including media) on SkyDrive similar to Windows 8.1
- Option to display Battery percentage
- VPN Support
- Enterprise Wi-fi Support (TLS)
- Call history to show the duration of a call
- Improved storage management - show size of every app
- Option to have apps update automatically
- Updated features for Rooms
- Updated features for Kids Corner
- More home screen customisation
- Family safety features - Allow parents / guardians to have a password protected section in the settings that can control certain features of the phone
- Access to new API's
- New live tile features
- Allow access to videos recorded by the phone