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Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 10th, 2020
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning August 10th, 2020.
Markets could be challenged by Washington stimulus talks and China tensions - (Source)
The debate in Washington over the next round of fiscal stimulus and rising tensions between the White House and China could act as brakes on the stock market in the coming week.
Stocks rallied in the past week but were more sluggish Friday, as investors watched stimulus talks between Democrats and the Trump administration stall out. Investors also were concerned that President Donald Trump’s executive order banning U.S. transactions with Tencent’s We Chat and Bytedance’s Tik Tok would accelerate the deterioration of relations between the U.S. and China and draw retribution.
Just ahead of Friday’s market close, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said just that he is recommending the White House move forward with executive orders on unemployment, student loans and rental foreclosures. He said a compromise could not be reached with Democrats, who wanted a $2 trillion package. Stocks edged higher after the announcement though details of the orders and how any assistance could be funded were unclear.
“It’s an attempt to bring the Democrats back to the table to negotiate a deal by threatening to use an executive order. They may be able to get some things down, but it won’t be enough to create the bridge they need while the economy continues to repair itself,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors.
The S&P 500 was up 2.4% for the week, ending at 3,351, after a 2 point gain Friday. The Nasdaq was down 0.9% Friday, ending at 11,010. It was up 2.5% for the week.
“Part of the reason stocks have held in there well and continue to melt up is that one of the things that is priced in is a fifth fiscal policy package of $1.5 trillion. if we don’t get one, I do think the market will retrace lower to reflect a lack of stimulus,” said Arone. “The recovery will stall out without one.”
As for China, it has so far not taken actions against U.S. companies, even with the Trump administration’s moves to block Chinese telecom giant Huawei from using U.S. parts. The latest steps, however, raised concerns that China could find ways to retaliate, and that the U.S. will bar Chinese IPOs.
“On balance, continued hostility toward China is going to be a continued net negative for U.S. companies that are revenue exposed to China,” said Julian Emanuel, head of equities and derivatives strategy at BTIG. “We know the exposure is very centered in the Nasdaq names.”
Emanuel said the stock market is entering a seasonally weak time, and while market psychology is still strong it could start to change. “The seasonals are starting to shift negatively. We all know September is a poor month and the degree of the escalation of the tensions between the U.S. in China is not a surprise, but the degree of the escalation over the last 48 hours is,” he said. “It’s not changing psychology, but it’s challenging bullish psychology.”
In the coming week, there are some final earnings of the season, including technology company Cisco and food company Sysco. Some travel companies including Royal Caribbean report, as does consumer goods company Tapestry. In the week after, big retailers roll out their reports in the final earnings burst of the quarter.
Economic reports could be important in the coming week, as investors watch consumer price index inflation data Wednesday and retail sales Friday. Retail sales should provide a window into the consumer, as workers returned to their jobs but also faced uncertainty because of reclosings.
CPI is important as the market has been assuming inflation will ultimately start to show gains because of the weakening dollar and ballooning budget deficits. CPI last month showed a 0.6% increase month over month.
The pro-inflation trade has become important and has driven investors into stocks, gold, and out of the dollar.
Watch this tradeThe dollar could be the key to the fate of markets in the coming week. The U.S. currency was edging higher Friday but is still down about 3.5% over the past four weeks. Gold declined Friday, and Treasury yields moved lower.
“The dollar ... to me it just continues to be an important barometer that has a unique intersection of rates, inflation and risk assets,” said Arone. “With rising China, U.S. tensions and combined with the fact that there’s uncertainty about the fiscal policy package and the fact the dollar has declined so quickly, many are expecting it to catch a bid here and rebound.”
Part of the move in the dollar was based on the idea that huge government spending would increase the government’s deficit and Treasury issuance. Emanuel said the news on stimulus could have a big impact on the trade.
“We would make the argument the baseline expectation was a trillion dollars worth of stimulus to be implemented sometime in the month of August. Anything below that expectation is likely to cause the dollar to strengthen,” said Emanuel. “It’s a momentum and positioning trade as well as what has been ... the unwind of an asset diversification trade.”
The stalling of talks could shift the market’s view that the U.S. is willing to spend any amount to fight the impact of the coronavirus. “It’s changing the market psychology that the government’s propensity to spend infinitely is not as great as it was earlier in the week,,” Emanuel said. “The dollar rallying, from our perspective, is a direct threat to a lot of these momentum trades.”
Strategists said a strengthening dollar could be a headwind for stocks.
“Given the friction with China, to the extent the inflation numbers come in weaker than expected, the argument being that whole weaker dollar asset diversification has helped feed into increasing inflation expectations,” said Emanuel. “If the inflation data does surprise to the downside, given the rally in inflation ...it’s further potential for the unwinding of the short dollar trade and the unwinding of the long gold trade which in our view bleeds over into stocks.”
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
Major Indices for this past week:
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
Individual Investors Still Don't BelieveAs mentioned in a prior post, in the past week the S&P 500 has moved within 2% of its 2/19 high, but at the same time, less than a quarter of AAII respondents are optimistic for the future of stocks over the next six months. That begs the question- if there have been past times that sentiment and price action have been so detached from one another. Since the start of the AAII survey in 1987, there have been 10 periods (including the current one) in which the S&P 500 was within 2% of an all-time high but bullish sentiment was less than 25% without another occurrence in the prior three months. The most recent prior occurrence was not even a full year ago. Back in October, sentiment was only slightly higher as the S&P 500 was 1.84% from its all-time high. Prior to that, there were some scattered instances throughout 2013, 2015, and 2016 but before that, you would have to go back to 1993 to find another similar period. The one occurrence in 2013 stands out as it was both the lowest sentiment reading of these prior occurrences and the only one that occurred with the S&P 500 right at an all-time high.
As for where things stand after such instances, sentiment has tended to reverse higher in the following six months as the S&P 500 has tended to move higher. The S&P 500 has actually tended towards better than average returns over the next three months, although performance six months out has been modestly worse than average, even as it has been higher more often than not. Additionally, as shown in the second chart below, of the more recent occurrences of the past decade, they haven't marked any major top or bottom for the S&P 500 with occurrences clustered both coming off of lows and in the middle of longer-term uptrends.
Silver Takes the GoldGold and silver prices were already on a tear heading into this week, but they've only seen their gains accelerate even more. With more than a day and a half of trading left in the week, front-month gold futures have rallied, but silver has been the real show stopper with a gain of 16%!
Taking a look at a one-year chart of silver over the last year, things have really gone parabolic this week as the front-month futures contract is trading more than 40% above its 50-day moving average (DMA) and 62% above its 200-DMA.
Big Moves Off 52-Week LowsWithin the US equity market, we've seen some major moves in individual stocks off their 52-week lows over the last few months. Look at the table below. Within the Russell 1000, which tracks the performance of the largest companies in the US, stocks in the index are up an average of 87.6% from their respective 52-week lows. Looking at performance by individual sectors, stocks in the Energy sector are up an average of 136.8%, while the average Consumer Discretionary stock has rallied 131.4%. The Technology sector wasn't hit nearly as hard by the Covid-crash as other sectors, but stocks in the sector have doubled on an average basis relative to their 52-week lows. The only sector where stocks are up less than 50% on an average basis from their 52-week lows is Utilities at 46.33%.
Within the entire Russell 1,000, 257 stocks have at least doubled off their 52-week lows, and in the table below we highlight the 34 stocks that are at least a quarter of the way to the ten-bagger club and have rallied more than 250%. As mentioned above, W tops the list, but Fastly (FSLY), which has barely been public for a year, is just shy of the club with a gain of 992%. Behind FSLY, Livongo Health (LVGO) is up 855%. Given that LVGO just got a takeover offer from Teladoc (TDOC), the 11th best-performing stock on the list, it may only make the ten-bagger club under the banner of the TDOC ticker.
In looking through the list of stocks shown, many of these names come from the Health Care, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary sectors and have been direct beneficiaries of the new Covid-economy. At the same time, six stocks from the Energy sector made the list as well as they recovered from their bombed-out levels after oil prices briefly traded in negative territory earlier this year.
Bullish Earnings Season So FarAt our Earnings Explorer tool available to clients on our website, we provide a real-time look at beat rates for both EPS and sales. Below is a snapshot from the website showing both the EPS and sales beat rates for US companies reporting earnings on a rolling 3-month basis. Currently, 64.61% of companies have exceeded consensus analyst EPS estimates over the last three months, while 63.75% of companies have beaten consensus sales estimates over the same time frame.
In looking at the chart, you can see a big spike in the EPS beat rate over the last few weeks. Since earnings season began on July 13th, nearly 80% of companies have posted stronger than expected EPS numbers. That's a huge beat rate and suggests that analysts were too bearish on Q2 numbers heading into July. The revenue beat rate held up much better than EPS beats throughout the first half of 2020, but it too is on the upswing this season.
Labor Market Continues Summer MomentumAfter falling the most on record in April, the US labor market has rebounded with three consecutive months of job gains, adding back more than 9 million of the 22 million jobs lost in March and April. In July, the economy added back nearly 1.8 million jobs, ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimates for 1.5 million and lowering the unemployment rate from 11.1% to 10.2%, but lingering measurement issues could add 1% to that number, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, job gains were broad based across industries, with a third of the increase coming from the leisure and hospitality sector—the “scene of the accident” industries—while only information, and mining and logging posted declines in July.
The July report also comes on the heels of a rise in COVID-19 cases across the Sunbelt region of the United States. Because of the date of the survey, it may not fully reflect the economic impact of some of the more recent high-frequency data that has captured some of the effect of rising cases. Still, the jobs report shows that the US economy is continuing to heal despite the long road ahead.
Are Recessions Good For Stocks?This isn’t like any recession we’ve ever seen, as it was sparked by a horrible pandemic and happened because people were told to stay inside. The impact was the worst contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) last quarter that anyone who is reading this has ever seen. But what is quite surprising is the fact the Nasdaq has made 30 all-time highs so far in 2020, while the S&P 500 Index has gained four consecutive months, all while the unemployment rate remains above 10%.
Why is this happening? There are two main schools of thought. One is that stocks are forecasting a better economy later this year and into 2021; remember, stocks tend to lead the economy and could be doing so once again. Another school of thought is that the massive fiscal and monetary policy are boosting equity prices, while not helping the overall economy quite as much.
Here’s the catch. It actually isn’t abnormal to see stocks gain during a recession. “This is one that might surprise many people, but stocks have actually gained during 7 of the past 12 recessions,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “There’s no question the difference between what is happening on Wall Street compared with Main Street is about as wide as we’ve ever seen, but maybe it shouldn’t be as big of a surprise that stocks have been strong.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 actually gained 1.3% on average when looking at the 12 previous recessions going back to World War II, with a very impressive median advance of 5.7% (the average is skewed lower due to 2008). We continue to expect this recession to end soon, if it isn’t over already. In fact, when the end of the recession is officially declared at a later date, we could have yet another recession that saw stock market gains.
Monday 8.10.20 Before Market Open:
Monday 8.10.20 After Market Close:
Tuesday 8.11.20 Before Market Open:
Tuesday 8.11.20 After Market Close:
Wednesday 8.12.20 Before Market Open:
Wednesday 8.12.20 After Market Close:
Thursday 8.13.20 Before Market Open:
Thursday 8.13.20 After Market Close:
Friday 8.14.20 Before Market Open:
Friday 8.14.20 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())(NONE)
NIO Inc. $13.42NIO Inc. (NIO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 11, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.35 per share on revenue of $485.92 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.24) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $476.00 million to $499.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 22.22% with revenue increasing by 121.13%. Short interest has decreased by 8.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 237.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 182.1% above its 200 day moving average of $4.76. On Monday, August 3, 2020 there was some notable buying of 9,895 contracts of the $15.00 call and 9,777 contracts of the $10.00 put expiring on Friday, August 14, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 17.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 20.5% move in recent quarters.
MercadoLibre Inc -MercadoLibre Inc (MELI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Monday, August 10, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.10 per share on revenue of $762.54 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.13 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 67.74% with revenue increasing by 39.85%. Short interest has increased by 16.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 62.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 70.8% above its 200 day moving average of $698.91. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,657 contracts of the $1,500.00 call expiring on Friday, August 14, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 11.3% move in recent quarters.
Canopy Growth Corporation $16.63Canopy Growth Corporation (CGC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Monday, August 10, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.29 per share on revenue of $75.99 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.35) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 54% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 26.09% with revenue increasing by 12.34%. Short interest has decreased by 3.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.2% below its 200 day moving average of $17.91. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 6, 2020 there was some notable buying of 22,063 contracts of the $20.00 call expiring on Friday, August 14, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 12.2% move in recent quarters.
Barrick Gold Corporation $28.87Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Monday, August 10, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.19 per share on revenue of $2.86 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.21 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 72% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 111.11% with revenue increasing by 38.63%. The stock has drifted higher by 3.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 34.2% above its 200 day moving average of $21.52. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 7,850 contracts of the $30.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.4% move in recent quarters.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. $52.10Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:05 AM ET on Monday, August 10, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $4.71 per share on revenue of $874.54 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($5.05) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 23% expecting an earnings miss. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 285.43% with revenue decreasing by 68.84%. Short interest has decreased by 5.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 33.1% below its 200 day moving average of $77.92. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,939 contracts of the $40.00 put expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 10.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.1% move in recent quarters.
DraftKings Inc. $34.09DraftKings Inc. (DKNG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Friday, August 14, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.15 per share on revenue of $52.30 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.10) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. The stock has drifted higher by 31.7% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 15.5% move on earnings in recent quarters.
Marriott International Inc. $93.78Marriott International Inc. (MAR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Monday, August 10, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.44 per share on revenue of $1.74 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.48) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 5% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 128.21% with revenue decreasing by 67.20%. Short interest has decreased by 31.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.2% below its 200 day moving average of $110.63. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, July 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,103 contracts of the $70.00 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.
Inovio Biomedical Corp $20.22Inovio Biomedical Corp (INO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, August 10, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.18 per share on revenue of $2.08 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.17) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 40.00% with revenue increasing by 1,429.41%. Short interest has increased by 34.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 73.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 113.2% above its 200 day moving average of $9.49. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 7,778 contracts of the $13.00 put expiring on Friday, August 14, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 20.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.
Cisco Systems, Inc. $47.43Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, August 12, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.74 per share on revenue of $12.10 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.78 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.72 to $0.74 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 10.84% with revenue decreasing by 9.89%. Short interest has increased by 1.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.2% above its 200 day moving average of $44.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, July 30, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,008 contracts of the $30.00 put expiring on Friday, June 18, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 5.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.7% move in recent quarters.
DISCUSS!What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
The Mysterious Unsolved Abduction of Angela Marie Hammond
Angela Marie Hammond was born on February 9, 1971, to her loving parents, Marsha and Chris Hammond. For the first four years, the family lived in Kansas City, but they soon relocated to Clinton, Missouri, where Marsha's parents, Lloyd and Elizabeth Young were residing.
Clinton, Missouri is a small, rural town populated by fewer than 9,000 people as of 2016. Residents make a living by hard work at factory jobs, farming, and supporting local businesses. It's a town where people wave to each other as they walk; people meet up in the morning at the local diner to have coffee, and when high school football season starts the community gathers together on Friday nights to support their hometown team.
Not too long after the move to Clinton, Marsha and Chris added another addition to their family, a newborn baby boy, Loren Hammond. Sadly, over time their marriage fell apart, which resulted in Marsha moving twenty miles away to an isolated farm out in the country in Montrose, Missouri, and Chris traveling back to Olathe, Kansas, where he later remarried. Despite the unfortunate circumstances, Angela and Loren grew up in a happy and stable environment, where their parents were actively involved in their lives and made sure they were loved and taken care of.
As time went on, Clinton, Missouri became Angela's home, and she cherished the friends, memories, and future she was making for herself there. Angela's best friend, Kyla Engeman, described her as an intelligent woman who knew how to have fun anywhere she went. There was never a dull moment with her, and the energetic and positive energy beaming off of her made people want to be around her.
In November of 1990, 19-year-old Angela met Rob Shafer, an 18-year-old high school star athlete who had ambitions to join the military. The two quickly intertwined and fell in love. The following year in January 1991, she announced to Rob that she was pregnant. Rob was thrilled by the news and subsequently proposed, where Angela ecstatically accepted. The newly engaged couple soon moved in together at a rented trailer home and started planning ahead for their new journey in life. Rob still had plans to follow through with enlisting in the military later that summer, while Angela was working at the Union State Bank as a night processor and taking college courses in Central Missouri State University thirty miles away in Warrensburg, Missouri.
Angela's relationship with Rob continued to blossom and they were both wanted and accepted into each other's families. Four months later, nobody could have predicted the mysterious turn of events that continues to baffle the small town to this very day.
On the unusually warm Spring evening of Thursday, April 4, 1991, Angela was accompanied by her fiance at her mother's residence to have a family barbeque. The entire night had gone smoothingly--where everything seemed to be perfectly intertwined to have a relaxing and blissful time with friends and family.
Shortly after 9:00 p.m. Angela and Rob decided to head back to Clinton because he had plans to be at his mother's home, Carol Shafer, by 10:00 p.m. to babysit his younger brother, Justin Shafer. The couple had plans to meet up in town later that night when his mother returned in a few hours, so when she dropped him off she proceeded to spend time with her best friend, Kyla, and cruise the downtown square to have a little fun to pass the time.
At approximately 11:15 p.m. Angela and Kyla parted ways for the night. Thereafter, she decided to call Rob at the nearest payphone on the corner of 210 South 2nd Street where the Food Barn Store parking lot was situated -- now the Jim Raysik Car Dealership. She didn't own a home phone and wanted to tell him that she was exhausted and planned on going back home to soak in a bath. The two continued speaking on the phone for thirty minutes, but at 11:45 p.m. the lives of everyone in Clinton, Missouri changed in an unsettling fashion that still looms over the small town.
In the midst of the phone call, Angela alerted Rob to a conspicuous man circling the block several times in an older modeled green Ford F150 pickup truck. Moments later the driver pulled over near her and stepped outside of the truck and walked toward the unoccupied phone booth next to Angela. Seconds later he returned to his truck and grabbed a flashlight and started waving it around as if he was searching for something. Trying to ease the unsettling tension, Angela asked if he needed to use the phone, but he told her no. All of a sudden, a horrifying scream could be heard and Rob -- who lived 7-blocks away -- immediately tossed aside the landline phone and jumped out of his seat to rush to Angela's aide.
On his way to her, a similar truck matching what Angela relayed darted passed him with a woman struggling with the driver and screaming "Robbie!" for help. He hastily put his vehicle in reverse and made a sharp U-Turn to give chase. The pursuit continued for approximately two miles before Rob's transmission malfunctioned when he made a right turn, resulting in the vehicle stalling in the middle of the road, as the truck with Angela in tow quickly faded out of view.
Unfortunately, Rob had no choice but to walk back to town. Luckily, a passing motorist noticed him and picked him up and Rob asked to be taken to the police station so he could notify them of what just transpired. He arrived at the department just shy over midnight and reported the incident.
Rob told the police Angela described the unidentified male as "filthy and bearded." He was wearing coveralls, a dark-colored baseball hat, eyeglasses, and had a full beard with a mustache. The truck he was driving was a green Ford F150 with a white top and delineated to be between the late 60s to early 70s. There had been partial damage on the left side front fender, and on the rear window was a mural of a fish jumping out of the water. A composite sketch of the person of interest was created, although it had been met with much scrutiny because it doesn't feature key characteristics that Angela described to Rob.
Initially, the police were skeptical of Rob's story, believing it seemed too contrived and convenient. Nevertheless, as they began their investigation they uncovered Rob's vehicle undrivable in the middle of the street. Shortly thereafter they found Angela's car abandoned at the shopping center parking lot with her purse still inside.
Detective Damon Parsons of the Clinton Police Department notified Marsha on the scenario unfolding, which caused immediate frantic. She contacted Angela's father, Chris, and delivered the devastating news. He promptly made the trip to Clinton, Missouri and resided there for several weeks to assist with trying to locate his daughter.
For the first week of the investigation, Rob was considered the prime suspect in Angela's disappearance, but after passing a polygraph test and two witnesses coming forward claiming to see the same truck as Rob described to police, he was subsequently ruled out.
As the police continued rounding up friends and family for questioning and additional details, they focused on Angela's ex-boyfriend, 17-year-old Bill Barker. There were rumors going around that he was the father of Angela's baby, but he denied those allegations and after looking further into things, he was no longer considered a suspect.
The community rallied together distributing missing person's posters all throughout town, plastering the photographs on local storefront windows, diners, and truck stops that were often frequented. Over 250 volunteers including friends, family and the police, conducted an air and ground search scouring the entirety of Clinton looking for Angela. Water wells, creek beds, old country roads that are isolated, barns, woods, fields, and abandoned buildings were heavily combed with no luck.
Eleven days later the Clinton Police Department contacted the Missouri Rural Crime Scene Squad seeking help into the investigation. As a result, 25 police officers from 15 neighboring counties happily accommodated them. The Missouri Highway Patrol also looked through their database of all registered vehicles. A list of 1,600 potential pickup trucks matching what Angela's kidnapper was possibly driving was compiled and sought out for new suspects, but the extensive search proved fruitless.
The police were at a loss for words--perplexed as to how a small town crime wasn't providing evidence and answers that would hone in on a probable suspect. In turn, they started to consider the possibility that Angela's abduction could be connected to two similar disappearances that had occurred within an 80-mile radius months earlier in January and February of 1991.
In Macks Creek, Missouri -- a small country-oriented town with a population of fewer than 500 residents -- on Saturday, January 19, 1991, 42-year-old Trudy Darby was working the night shift at the local K & D Convenience Store. At approximately 10:00 p.m. Trudy was in the process of closing up the store for the night when she noticed three men lingering just outside of the store. Feeling unnerved by their presence, she phoned her son, Waylon Darby, asking him to assist her because she felt uncomfortable. Waylon obliged and arrived in ten minutes, but his mother was nowhere to be found. Two days later on January 21, 1991, Trudy's nude body was discovered fifteen miles away in the Little Niangua River; she had been shot twice in the head by a .38 caliber.
One month later on Wednesday, February 27, 1991, another remarkably similar incident occurred 80-miles away in Nevada, Missouri -- another small town about the same size as Clinton, Missouri. Cheryl Ann Kenney, a 30-year-old wife, and mother of two, was working at the Quality Convenience Store located on Business 71 Highway. It was 10:00 p.m. and she was accompanied by the store janitor and a male customer. The store typically stayed open until midnight, but the night was going relatively slow so she decided to close up the shop and allowed the janitor to leave early. Cheryl proceeded to count the till and store the money in the backroom. At 10:17 p.m. she set the store's alarm system and made her way to her white Chevrolet resting in the parking lot. It's unclear as to why truly happened afterward, but she never returned home and hasn't been seen since.
Three years later in the summer of 1994, the case of the abduction and murder of Trudy Darby was solved. The perpetrators were 15-year-old Jessie Rush and his half-brother, Marvin Chaney. They were arrested after Jessie had visited Kansas City and bragged to multiple friends -- Elizabeth Corpening, Carl Blakely, and Gretchen Chastain -- that he was responsible for Trudy's murder and successfully got away with it. Jessie's friends were shocked by his revelations and rightfully alerted the police. Subsequently, he was interrogated and ultimately confessed to the crime.
Jessie didn't hold back the details of the grisly crime. He professed that he, Chaney, and another accomplice had planned the abduction of Trudy beforehand. They entered the store and held her up at gunpoint -- stealing $220.00 from the cash register and forcing her into their vehicle. She attempted to defend herself, which only angered them more. They transported her to a nearby barn, where they sexually and physically assaulted her. Afterward, they shot her once in the head and put her body in the trunk of their car and took her to the Little Niangua River to dispose of her. When they opened the trunk they noticed she was still breathing so they shot her once more and discarded her body.
A few months later on December 24, 1994, Trudy's father, Wilbert Blecher, passed away at the age of 69-years-old. Before perishing, he expressed his utmost gratitude for being alive long enough to have the resolution and justice he desperately sought after for three years. Six years following on November 21, 2000, Trudy's mother, Betty Jean Thompson Belcher passed away at 74-years-old.
While Jessie was in jail awaiting trial he became acquainted with several inmates, one of whom was Edward Thomas, who he befriended because he believed he was a lawyer that could help him lessen his charges of abduction and murder. With his misguided faith, Jessie wrote 13 letters to Thomas that incriminated him further with Darby's murder and also suggested that he and Chaney are behind many more audacious unsolved crimes that hadn't been solved.
In one particular letter, he proclaimed:
"I just wish my brother would have done like I said at the barn and burnt the bitch up but that pussy ass cheevers and parel desided to take the bitch to a fuckin river instead. I was to fucked up to argue with em all I wanted to do was fuck the bitch then shoot her in the head to watch her brains come out. Sounds cool huh? if the bitch would have not moved in the trunk at the river my brother wouldn't of had to shoot her in the head again just the have the cops find a shell the stupid mother fucker the only smart thing we did was have marshels brother greg burn the barn other wise the mother fuckers would have a lot more on us. im glad they don't know every thing else we did or i'd be on death row."In a barrage of additional letters sent to Thomas, Jessie alluded that he Chaney had committed many more unsolved crimes, saying:
"I never told you about them other bitchs because if it gets found by accident it can get us involved in killing them other fucking bitchs. the cops don't even know about my brother and me killing any other bitchs except Macks Creek. them other bitchs in my last letter to you were both like that bitch in Macks Creek we all tortured the bitchs then fucked the dog shit out of em."Three years later in April 1997, Jessie Rush and Marvin Chaney were sentenced to life in prison without the possibility of parole. Rush was transported to South Central Correctional Facility in Licking, Missouri, and Chaney was imprisoned at the maximum-security Potosi Correctional Center in Mineral Point, Missouri. In September of 2017, Chaney passed away at the age of 56-years-old due to natural causes.
As for Angela's disappearance in 1991, the first year was emotionally overwhelming for family and friends, because they still had to maintain their responsibilities as an adult. In June of 1991, Rob Shafer had gone to Fort Eustis, VA, to train for the National Guardsmen, while Kyla Engeman planned to relocate to Colorado. Later that year, Marsha won a vacation trip to Florida from her place of employment, but she didn't want to accept the prize because she felt guilty -- spending time having a few days of enjoyment while her daughter was missing. Nevertheless, friends and coworkers convinced her to take the opportunity to recharge her batteries from all the turmoil.
In October of 1991, a new possible lead emerged from a man named Russel Smith. He was living in Libau, Manitoba, Canada, but decided to visit family living in Ulrich, Missouri. He hadn't any knowledge regarding who Angela was or the circumstances surrounding her disappearance until he saw a missing person's poster. Once he did, he had an epiphany and immediately contacted the Clinton Police Department. According to his assertion, during September he witnessed a woman matching Angela's description getting inside of a green pickup truck that had a white top and mural on the rear window after leaving a drugstore in Selkirk, Manitoba, Canada.
Russel's bold allegation caused Clinton's Police Chief Bob Pattison to contact Sgt Bob MacQuarrie of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police to alert them to the possible new development. In response, MacQuarrie followed up on the sighting. Considering Angela was four-months pregnant at the time of her disappearance, they made the logical deduction that she may have given birth to her child. They proceeded to visit all the hospitals and baby stores in the area with Angela's photograph to see if any staff members had remembered seeing her, but nobody recognized her.
The following month in November 1991, the production crew for Unsolved Mysteries arrived in Clinton, Missouri, to film a re-enactment of Angela's disappearance. The episode was broadcasted on television the very next month. With the latest televised coverage, David Rader, the producer for the television show, urged law enforcement to not raise their expectations too high because only two of the 49 missing person cases they covered had been solved by the public. By the end of 1991, the investigation into Angela's disappearance was met with despondency.
In the summer of 1992, another baffling mystery occurred in Springfield, Missouri, when Sherrill Levitt, Suzie Streeter, and Stacy McCall vanished without a trace on the same night. Their disappearance sent shockwaves across the nation. Shortly thereafter, Marsha became friends with Stacy's mother, Janis McCall, and formed a unique bond -- becoming a moral support shoulder to lean on in the wake of their nightmarish tragedies. The two of them were later invited to be on the Oprah Winfrey show to keep their missing loved ones in the spotlight in the hopes of garnishing new leads that would bring closure.
Regrettably, Angela's disappearance went stagnant for years. The police had ruled out Jessie Rush and Marvin Chaney as suspects in Angela's disappearance and couldn't locate any hard evidence linking them to Cheryl's vanishing either. In April of 2009, new information was brought forth by the Clinton Police Department. They provided a statement to the media claiming they have new evidence in the case, particularly of DNA nature, due to advancements in technology an forensic science, but they never elaborated fully as to what they unearthed.
Since then, very little updates have surfaced in the subsequent years. 27-years have passed from when Angela disappeared, and lack of answers has continued to plague friends and family of Angela's. Nonetheless, they had to resume building on to their own lives. The Hammond family still pursues closure with a relentless passion and makes sure Angela's memory isn't forgotten. They still remain in contact with Rob and consider him a part of their family. As for Rob Shafer, he eventually moved 60 miles away and works construction and has a beautiful family of his own. Though the heartache and what-ifs still linger, Angela's family embraces her gleeful personality--honoring her by thinking positive and shedding light in dark places, as Angela so often did.
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