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Happy Tuesday all! Hope we're all doing well. I spent last night pondering base icon sbcs (with my tin foil hat firmly on) and what impact they will have on the market (I had a lovely 30 min bath with no phone charge) and I came to a conclusion that it may be in the best interest to EA to NOT release them.... Ill include a little explanation at the end of this post and do let me know your thoughts!
GENERAL MARKET TRENDS (as of 9.30am GMT 24/11/2020)
High rated metas - Nothing to really report here; players like Neymar and Mbappe have all hovered around their price since Sunday. However we have seen the next tier of metas (Rashford, Gomez etc) drop slightly in price since Sunday.
RTTF 1/2cards - All cards have increased in price. With RTTF 1 cards being at their lowest on Sat/Sunday (when i recommended people to buy) they have all shot gone up in price in anticipation for tonights games. Griezmann went from 500k to 530k today and similarly Rashford is up from 800 to 830k. RTTF 2 cards are in the same positions from their lowest point on Thurs/Fri. Sissoko has jumped considerably from 690k on Friday to 800k today.
Out of pack special cards - Most of the popular RB and totw cards have dropped since the WL; which is to be expected. I think we will see a rise again this weekend.
GENERAL VIEW OF THE MARKET?
Market is pretty timid, aside from the RTTF cards, which was expected. Most other cards are just going through the motions of being sold and rising back into the weekend. Prices of lower meta players may drop slightly tonight if we have a pack supply sbc but otherwise I dont really expect much tonight.
A little tip actually for quick flips; on nights where there's little content - its always a good opportunity to buy cards in the afternoon and flipping them around 7-8pm if theres no content. Doesn't work for all cards, but good for some cards.
WHY I DONT THINK BASE ICON SBC WILL COME OUT.
Time to put your tinfoil hats on.
So at the moment you can argue that most fodder are at a middle ground; not the lowest ever but lower than the base line last year once reasonable sbcs came out; meaning we can unanimously say that theres a higher ceiling for them. The reason why we want base icon sbcs is for this fodder to rise and hit that ceiling right so we could all bank right? As glorious as that sounds - the problem i see in this is how they price icon sbcs.
Icon sbc's are one of the defining features this year and obviously designed (as with everything) to sink coins. At the moment we have seen that they try to price them around the market price of the icon (if not slightly more) which is what they should do; price them too low them everyone will be walking around with Figos and also would crash the market price, but price them slightly higher than market then the market will still hold whilst giving the option to pay 30k more than market to get an first owner untradeable - which people will do.
So how this all relates to pricing and the price of fodder? It's related to what we talked about at the start; the price of fodders is still way below the benchmark of last year. If the base icon sbcs were released, the following would happen (i think);
- The price of fodder sky rockets, meaning people would bank.
- The pricing of icon sbcs released would be based around market value, but with fodder at their highest value.
- The prices of fodder will eventually settle to a new baseline which is probably 10-30% higher than what it is.
- The prices of the current icon sbcs will increase by 10-30%, which would either make them obselete and potentially would raise the value of the market icons.
- The prices of any icon sbcs released if during an inflated market, would decrease as fodder settled - which would ultimately crash the market values of the icons.
- Or that there will be no new icon sbcs for the duration of the base icon sbc as it will have too much implication on how they price. I cant see the duration being any less than 30 days; any less would many they would cause people to panic and do them, which would mean pay day for investors (not EA's perogative). A whole month with no new Icon sbcs seems implausible as well.
On the flip side, if they didnt release them;
- They would maintain the ability to cost sbcs without overly inflating the fodder market.
- Investor won't get the payday they are after.
- One of their main features this year won't be obselete or absurdly valued.
Let me know your thoughts on this - and equally leave a comment when icon sbcs come out tonight reminding me of this post and why the tin foil hat should be binned. But in all seriousness, take this with a pinch of salt, I'm just theory crafting here; nothing is confirmed or leaked and it could all be nonsense by next week.
Thanks again for reading these long posts, and as always, leave me your questions and Ill try to answer each one :)
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