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Assassin's Creed: Imperium (Ancient Rome). Next Gen AC
City based, 1:1 scale AC. https://cdna.artstation.com/p/assets/images/images/000/303/896/large/KARAKTER_Ryse_Rome.jpg?1416149349 ERA: 117 AD (Trajan's era, Rome's peak). No level requirements. Just your own skill.submitted by GreenArrow194 to assassinscreed
PROLOGUE: The story starts with the invasion and conquest of yet more land for the Empire. In the fight a well respected young legionnaire, Sirius, the main character, is fighting for his life amidst all the chaos and fire. This character, if you want an idea of who he is, is a sort of mix between Bayek and Rust Cohle from TD.
Sirius and the legions. \"The world is dark and brutal. Rome is its light. Rome brings the light\". This is what Sirius believed at first.
Sirius is immediatly distressed by the sight of war and innocent people dying. The Roman generals in the war seem to care little. Sirius is determined to put an end to the war by killing the enemy leader, knowing the army will likely give up, putting an end to the suffering. The theme of suffering is the defining theme of this narrative.
Sirius runs through the ruined city to the place where the enemy leader is. He finds him and kills him and a white confessions scene plays out. He takes a shiny object from him. The enemy asks why the need for such violence and conquest. Sirius seems to have no answer as if he has been dealing with the same questions for a long time (he has).
The enemy also asks if the Ancients came for the object, to which Sirius doesn´t even know what he's talking about. As he orders the enemy to declare desistance, he looks down to the burnt city as the Romans ignore the fact the army is defeated and slaughter most of them.
Sirius finds an eagle burnt but still alive. He carries her out of there. He names her Luna. The eagle would then be your faithful companion. TITLE INTRO PLAYS.
Sirius names Luna after his lost daughter, stillbirth.
ASSASSIN'S CREED IMPERIUM
MODERN DAY FIRST PART
After fading to black, the game cuts to the modern day. A young female, Sara Adler Miller, wearing a hoodie, is looking at a man, who also looks at her and asks her if she's had a rough night, while she looks stunned and concerned. Screen cuts to black again and we see her in a club, with innebriating music playing dulling all other sounds. She is tailing a man
We walk through the disco after the man, slowly, taking in the music. She then manages to sneak into his private room and starts flirting with him. He goes along with it. She suddenly changes topic of conversation and tells him she knows of the morally incorrect things he's done. She describes the corrupt things and tells him he should hire better guards at his house.
She knows he is Abstergo. She has all the info she needs to send him to jail. At first he doesn´t seem to believe her but then he starts to panick and calls security. We get another cutscene in which she efficiently defeats the guards while this plays, and the corrupt man.
Sara fighting the corrupt Abstergo man..
As she is arriving home a man stops her and asks her that initial question. It's William Miles. He tells her if she succeded in taking down the corrupt man. Having received the info that the man was corrupt and worthy of investigation by an anonymous source she immediatly realizes it was that man.
William Miles tells her vigilantism only gets her so far and mentions how he is an Assassin. She is already familiar with them due to having worked with a member of them in the past. Miles tells her her lineage is important and she could do more for the world working with the Assassins.
They go to theur hidden base where Rebecca and Shaun are there. They meet, talk a bit and she enters the Animus.
Sirius would have frequent flashbacks to the initial battle. It would be a constant source of guilt for him
The Legions return to Rome as victors and are received by Trajan, who wants to speak with Sirius knowing the young legionairre is responsible for killing the barbarian leader. The two talk and we get a sense of who Trajan is and more information on who Sirius is. Trajan, the main villain of the game.
But Trajan isn´t a villain in the traditional sense. He is an educated kind man, that has been expanding the empire but providing social welfare and important programs that uplifted the lifes of the citizens. He asks Sirius his opinion of Rome and why he joined the Legions to which Sirius answers that the world is a dark, brutal place and he wanted nothing more than to help those in it.
Rome, as bringer of civilized society, was the instrument in that. But there is doubt in Sirius's voice. He then asks if Sirius recovered anything from the barbarian and Sirius gives him the shiny object, to Trajan's full delight...
The Legions return to Rome
As the act progresses, we do a few normal missions for the empire in Rome, nothing major. We also meet Sirius's friends who ask him how the conquests went. Eventually Sirius breaks and talks about how what he always despised, he ended up working for. Brutality.
We get a flashback to Sirius's childhood and see his family, we play for a little while but the family and the city of Rome is ravaged by the plague. The memory ends with Sirius as a kid crying.
Sirius is now a broken man, not being able to forget the horrors he participated in the wars for conquest. He wonders if the last one, was just a pretext for the obtainment of the object, whatever it is. He decides to try and retain it.
Sirius infiltrates the imperial palace and steals the object. He returns home and by tinkering with it, has a vision of the past. We now play as Bayek in a 30 to 1h mission of his time in Rome. In this segment we get a quick sense of who the Order of the Ancients are, of who the Hidden Ones are and their goals. Bayek is revealed to be Sara's ancestor and of Sirius.
S Y N C H R O N I Z A T I O N C O M P L E T E W O R L D M A P U P D A T E D
Bayek also talks about some hidden temple named the Red Room. Sirius concludes easily that the Roman empire is controlled by this shadowy organization that is the Order and why they invaded the last land. He vows to fight them.
MODERN DAY PART 2
Sara training with a bow. The bleeding effect made her quite proficient with a bow and arrow
We get a little segment in which we explore the Altair II, the boat where the hidden base is located. We get to know more about Sara and why she decided to become a vigilante. She explaines she used to work for Abstergo and quickyl understood how corrupt they were.
Because she shares a distaste for injustice, she decided to fight Abstergo, having started to train parkour and archery (because of the animus). There is however more to her past...We do some parkout training that displays she has a natural skill for it. She also starts to begin a friendship with the rest of the team.
Sirius now is acting a hidden vigilante that investigates the link between the Order and Rome. He seeks the Hidden Ones, having known their location in the bureau through the memory seal. Surpringsily its still there, in the catacombs of Rome.
He explains his predictament and while they don´t trust him immediatly and certainly don´t turn him into to a hidden one just yet, they agree to work together. The city is now in maximum attention because of the stolen object and the roman guards are actively searching the thief.
Meanwhile, Trajan and Sirius get closer and Sirius gains his trust. However, he also starts to look to Trajan as a sort of father.
Simultaneoly, the vigilante dismantling operations in the city is now famous, seen as some sort of Robin Hoodm hunting down the corrupt elites of the city. Trajan comments this with Sirius, not knowing apparently that he is the vigilante but speaking of the actions of the hero as understandable and even worthy, being able to do without bureouracy what he intends to do for the city.
Sirius proceeds his investigation in Rome and finds out Trajan is the leader of the Order of Ancients which disturbs him midly but doesn´t exactly surprises him.
One of the investigations would lead us into the Coliseum. Sirius also had a bit of a contradiction. He loved to kill. To release the anger he had. He realized how problematic this was with his other peaceful ideologies.
He manages to sneak in a meeting of them and listens to them talking about the Red Room and its purpose. He learns the invasion he participated in was nothing but a plan to recover the piece of eden from the barbarians. It wasn´t planned that Sirius was the one to get it. But no one planned Sirius to want to go on a suicide run and go straight to the enemy fort to try and end the war fast.
Apparently a machine devised by the Isu, of which Sirius also learned during Bayek's mission, capable of the predictive elements they always showed to have. Basically, the Red Room is a device started by Isu scientists that understood reality to be a simulation and by studying its code, they could predit the future.
This is how they knew of Desmond and the 2012 flare. But the machine only tells us the probable future, not a certainty.
To have the power to know future possibilites, a man could rule the entire world. This is the promise the Order seeks and why the Hidden Ones want to destroy it.
In the meantime, Sirius gets close with a hidden one assassin and she and him get closer as the game progresses. She displays a needed optimistic light in his life filled with darkness.
We know get a few locked misions outside of Rome, searching for rumors of the Red Room and Siirus finally finds info of it.
In the meantime, we get to know Sirius more. His view on the world is rather important to later parts of the story. He is a man at conflict with man and with nature. There is that dual storm in him. On one hand, Sirius hates the injustices created by Man and the oppression of liberty.
In this, he sides with the Hidden Ones. On the other, Sirius is at conflict with the natural world. He witnessed the effects of the plague in Rome as a child. From then on, any promises of divine justice fell for him.
He despises the brutality of the natural world. Animal eating animal. He intends to help people and animals but even he recognizes suffering is the natural state of mankind and all living being. Everything he does is a drop in the ocean. This is why he became so shocked at what the romans and he did in the prologue.
In that moment, he added suffering to the world, instead of fighting against it. He tried to sooth his ideological storm by joining the legions, fighting for country and all. But he realized what the Hidden Ones preach. Nations and empires come and go, while the people suffer always.
Eventually we find the location of, not the Red Room but another temple containing the key to it. Here Sirius gets a vision of an Isu, much like Desmond at the end of Revelations, and he finds out the other true purpose of the Red Room. To his shock.
The Isu understood reality to be...malleable. And within them, some realized reality to be built on suffering. This drove them to near madness.
The Red Room's predictive capabilites weren´t all it could do. A rogue faction of Isue working in the project devised another function. The Red solution (based on negative utilitarianism). By knowing future probabilities, those Isu saw how the solar flare would attempt to destroy the world, their world. They saw the rise of Assassins and Templars. But above all they saw one common factor.
Suffering. Oppression. They saw how common it was. Yes, the machine doesnt have 100% predictive capabilites but it's near. This realization that suffering is at the root of the Isu and human experience drove them mad and made them dig deeper into the simulation's code.
They believed to have discovered a way to turn off the simulation. To destroy the world in a second. Painless. So that suffering would be eradicated. Whether this function would work or it was just the job of mad scientists was the question now. The scientists never could activate the function before the solar flare. But the temple remined there.
MODERN DAY PART 3
Sara exits the Animus shocked at what she saw and wondering about the implications of it. The rest of the Assassins are shocked as well but Shaun thinks the red room end of the world stuff is just the ramblings of Isu. The team has a conversation on the ethics of extinction and hope.
Eventually, Rebecca tells the team they have a lead on the new Abstergo CEO. Sara volunteers to go on the mission, since Rebecca cant due to being chronically injured after Syndicate, Miles being, well, and old assassin, and Shaun having to be backup in the mission.
Sara goes to Lisbon, where Abstergo has now installed their new HQ. Portugal is the first country created by templars in history and saved them from total extinction in the medieval ages.
Because of the bleeding effect, she'd get very good with a bow and arrow. She could also use that as a non lethal weapon (round arrows) since she had a no kill rule as a vigilante. She and Sirius are two sides of the same coin. Both choosing to fight injustice. But Sarah was much more balanced.
The Abstergo CEO is attending a Woodkid concert. Yeah thats right.
We have an infilration parkour sequence, we get a birds eye view of Lisbon and leap of faith into the theater. As Sara enters it she uses her eagle vision obtained via animus bleeding effect. She detects the CEO as Iron by Woodkid plays as we stalk him
We eavesdrop a conversation between the CEO and a mysterious man. The mysterious man asks him how the project is going on. The CEO tells him things are going smoothly. Sara's opportunity for assassination is null now, even tho she tbh never wnt there with the goal in mind. Killing irl is still something she's wary about.
She returns to the new HQ of the Assassins in Lisbon (which is actually the real HQ of the nizari ismailii, assassin descendants, irl lmao). And we get a new small open world to explore as her. She talks about the conversation she witnessed and Shaun says he will research more on the mysterious man.
Sara and William Miles have a serious argument about whether she should have gone in for the kill. He tells her she can´t be an Assassin without blood on her hands. She tells him she´s not killing anyone. He then tells her he knows of her past. She is visibly upset and surprised. What could he know? Miles tells her he knows about the adoptions.
He knows how his father killed her mother. How she wished she could do something but she couldn´t. How she was powerless. He told her that to be an Assassin is to be powerful. To prevent needless suffering. She looks at him ready to punch him, saying he had no right in researching her past. He tells her it's his job and this is how they discovered her lineage and tracked her down.
He tells her she becoming a vigilante is a sign from the universe, or could be viewed as such, that she was meant to be an assassin. Before she does anything rash, she goes back in the animus.
Sirius is now in disarray. He thought the Red Room allowed for its original purpose, like the Order thinks. But now he now wonders if that second rogue function is possible.
As a pessimist, the idea of ending suffering forever, even if by eliminating the world, was tempting. Whether the possibility of the red room's wacky function being true is irrelevant now. It created the seed of doubt for Sirius. What would he do if he were to find it. It completely changed his goal...
Sirius doesn´t tell the Assassins the other so called function, nor does he tell the female assassin, with whom he's been in a relationship now. He keeps investigating by himself the location of the Red Room.
In a way, Sirius was using the assassins as a means to an end. To reduce his guilt and to end the suffering of the world which deeply troubled him.
He then is asked by Trajan for a meeting. They used those meetings for traditional philosophical talks about life that revealed much about the characters. Sirius asks him, hypothetically, what he would do if he could end suffering forever. The two have a conversation about wheteher life is worth living.
These meetings between the Emperor and Sirius are a topic of heavy discussion for the Hidden Ones. Some agree that someone close to the emperor is important to know info about the Order, while others think he should just kill Trajan and be done with it. Sirius justifies it by saying he is held in rgard by Trajan and could extract valuable information.
But in truth, despite Sirius can+t help but love Trajan as a father element.
In a mission when it appears the game is strangly slow down, Sirius is arrested and taken captive by the Roman guards and put in a prison.
MODERN DAY PART 4
The HQ of the Assassins is attacked and they are all taken captive (oh look, mirroring) by the Templars. The Abstergo CEO takes Sara to an isolated room and lockes her to an animus. The templars too are looking for the Red Room, but they too, apparently, only know about the predictive capabilities. Sarah is forced to continue her journey in the animus while the rest of the team is locked up.
Sirius is now a prisioner of...Trajan.
This is a world where nothing is solved, Trajan, claimed Sirius. You may be righteous but you are an emperor.
The emperor enters the prison and talks with Sirius. He tells him he knows he has been the vigilante and he appreciates his work but nonetheless couldn´t help but arrest him. He talks about how despite being the official leader of the Order of the Ancients, his work is sabotaged by the inner council, de facto leaders.
Trajan hopes for a more humane Order while the council is more prone to warring. He had to arrest Sirius when he had proof he was the vigilante. But the conversation doesnt end here.
Trajan also tells him he knows of the Red Room. He too witnessed the memories of Bayek talking about it. But he doesn´t know, too, of the second function.
He begs Sirius to join him, the Order, to change it from within and to unleash the potential of the predictive capabilites of the Red Room. Sirius refuses, of course, and doesn´t tell him the other function.
Trajan is visibily sad that he has no alternative but leaving Sirius in jail. Trajan speaks on how he has uncovered information related to the location of the Red Room and plans to uncover it.
The Hidden Ones rescue Sirius of jail, with particular input from his hidden ones girlfriend. His girlfriend notices something different in him and not just because he was in jail. He confesses to her that he likes to kill because it allows him to unleash the anger he feels toward the world.
An anger he has felt ever since that plague memory. He coulnd´t blame man for that so he blamed the world. There was of course the ideological component of it, the majority of his reasons, but that was also there.
Sirius then tells her about the second function of the Red Room. She refuses to believe it but nonetheless is intrigued. She asks him if he believes it and he is elusive in his answer. She notices something wrong in him but doesnt ask much.
A few more missions later the hidden ones learn where Trajan has gone, with the Order. He must be going for the promise of the Red Room. The hidden ones plan to leave the next day. But Sirius evades them and escapes on his own. But before he does that...Sirius is confronted by his mentor. Sirius confesses the second possible function of the hidden temple and his true intentions are made clear, despite not saying much. His mentor claims his objective is madness and the only possible choice is to destroy the device if it exists. Sirius can´t let that happen and as his mentor is leaving the room to warn the other assassins, Sirius chokes him as he begs forgiveness. He evades
Sirius and the Hidden Ones mentor discuss plans to chase down Trajan. They never had a stable relationship. The mentor knew of the conflict within Sirius and feared what it could bring to the brotherhood.
Sirius tracks Trajan to the city of Selinusto recover the key that gives access to the Red Room. He proceeds to kill him, revelaing the full extent of his devotion to the possibility of ending reality. To the point he'd kill Trajan, who had become family. Trajan is disappointed but hopes Sirius will turn back from his perdition.
Sirius now learns the location of the Red Room is in Olisipo, modern day Lisbon.
Luna flies over Olisipo
He finds it and there it is. A gigantic temple, the likes the franchise never portrayed and all around it lights illuminating to one point. There it was. The device. Sirius finds it. He kills Order of Ancient guards being killed by laser like weapons.
The temple was gigantic and like nothing the franchise had ever seen. As if staring right into God's heavenly palace itself.
He stands at the control room. An isu figure appears to him. A VI. One of the consciousness of the Isu rogue scientists that created the destroy function. It tells him what he needs to press in order to activte it and end reality.
Suddenly, his girlfriend appears. She now fears the function might be true and begs him to step away from the console.
He denies. She points an arrow at him. He looks defeated by her treason but commited.
"This is how they survive. They paint the world full of light and happiness. Then thell the children to propel their values into adulthood. Their light, their values. Their false optimism. But this isnt true. My life proves that isnt true. All there is, at its core, is pain and chaos. The universal laws of our existence are defined by it. The isu who built this knew it. You know it."
She asks him if he hates people. Why would he do something like this? That he's betraying everything the assassins stood for. He tells her he doesn't hate people. He loves them. This is why he's doing this. Because they've been handed a broken world, unfit for their dreams of peace.
She tells him she will stand there with him for a thousand years if need by until he has changed his mind and steps away from the console. He refuses, goes for the button and she shoots him with an arrow. She holds him as he apparently dies. She's crying and apologizing. She tells him she wished he could see the beauty in the world as the assassins and she does.
MODERN DAY PART 5
Sara has tears in her eyes. Sirius's story is emotionally painful.
The templars now know the location of what they wanted. They arent´t interested in finding out if the second function is real of course, they just want the predictive capabilities of the red room.
The new ABSTERGO CEO wants to set a new standard for the order. He has hired the Abstergo employee that Sara took down earlier as his security. He has the order breathing down his neck asking for results. But he wants to be more than a lackey. He looks up to God, who created the heaven, the earth and man. Anything less than that is not worth mentioning. That the machine will allow them to finally have control of time itself.
Sara, still shocked by the events of the animus, tells him that she has been playing by the rules for so much time (she never killed anyone as a vigilante). But clearly in this templar run world, rules matter little.
She tells him she will kill them all. The man exits the room. An employee by Abstergo enters her room with a syringe to kill her but she manages to grab it, escapes and kills the employee, while grabbing her bow and arrow
What follows is poetic rage.
She grabs a bow and arrow and along with the archery skills learned in the animus she just kills every guard that appears in front of her, Green Arrow style and she goes on and saves the rest of the kidnapped team, except Miles who she cant find. At this moment she is willing to let Miles die.
The new Abstergo CEO's security agent appears holding a gun to Miles head amidst the collapsed facility. He tells her to look at what she's done. She never wanted to be a killer and now look at the destruction she's causes.
He tells her she is free to go, but Miles stays with them. He asks her if she's ready to sacrifice her morals to kill him. She looks at Miles. She doubts for a second. She shoots the man in the head.
Miles apologizes to her for his previous behaviour and tells her everyone is proud of her. She is still distressed from all the killing but appreciates it. He tells her he will not repeat the mistakes he did with Desmond, with her. That its her freedom to choose her path. To be an assassin is to be free
The team goes back to the Altair II where Miles thanks Sara and apologizes for doubting her. Sara confesses something to him. She killed her father, revenge for him killing her mother and brutalizing both of them for years. The Abstergo escape is not the first time she's killed. Also, working for Abstergo, for Sigma Team, she had to do it.
Miles didn´t know about this and hugs her. Sara says she is ready to fight for a better world and to prevent suffering. Sirius might have taken things over the edge but his lessions were valuable. At the HQ, Rebecca comforts Sara as she cleans the blood from her hands. They're good friends.
Sara becomes an assassin and swears the code. Sara goes back to the animus to find out what happened to Sirius. After, the assassins will go to the Red Room and seal it for good.
Sirius is standing, looking much older, standing in the cliff of a high mountain with a letter in his hand. He reads it, and its his girlfriend telling him what happened between them could not be surprassed.
They got back together but they could never move on from the fact that while he chose not to activate the machine, Sirius wanted it and his girlfriend denied him the chance. Luna, Sirius's eagle has long passed. Sirius is alone. He feels alone. Did he brought it upon himself? Or is he a victim
Sirius looks to the cliff and the game ends, making us wonder if he jumped or not. And if he did, was it a classic leap of faith, or a suicide attempt.
ROLL CREDITS. A slowed version of Ezio's theme plays.
A post credits scene has a mysterious man talk about how Sara will play an important role in the future as she is related to Eve.
In other games, I'd also like to introduce a new faction, of which Sirius would get a little taste in this game, comprised of ex assassins and templars, united in their goal to find to Red Room and do what Sirius coudln´t. Despite his failure, he'd be seen as their prophet. They'd be also be a modern rival faction to Assassins and Templars, motivated by their extreme utilitarian ideology.
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No, Colonialism is not why countries are poor today
A reddit bug deleted 4/5's of my post while I was editing the post. I'm going to try figuring out how to recover it. If not feasible I will rewrite this tomorrow. This has been hastily re-edited before I go to sleep; I will try and tidy up the mess tomorrow.
- Lengthy Preamble
One of the most famous examples of these is Jared Diamonds "Guns Germs and Steel", published in 1997, which advocated that the dispersion of biodiversity and (in)conveniences of Geography allowed for the growth of sophisticated civilisations. While there were problems with his work and much of what he said has now been refuted, credit must be given to him for trying to give a reasonable predictive model for how the difference in the wealth of nations occurred. Similar accreditation I think is deserved by Kenneth Pomeranz, Ian Morris and in primacy Gregory Clark. The latter two, being brave enough to bring quantitative arguments into the mix, which, for modelling huge swathes of civilisation, is the most efficient and impartial way of doing so.
Unfortunately, this behaviour is not always consistent across the academic study of History. A lot of very bellicose accusations are made against parties both modern and historical which puts people into bullish political positions. And more often than not these arguments are based on flimsy evidence and perhaps more importantly, just so stories.
It is understandable that finding causality in complex social mechanisms is hard; extremely hard, so sometimes we need to build models with some assumptions. But very often for History in particular, these models carry no substantial study into data and statistics and are frequently based on diary quotes, anecdotes and other just so tools. To my mind the most obvious of these is Shashi Tharoor's "Inglorious Empire", although there is plenty of other offenders such as "Empire of Cotton" and "The Protestant Work Ethic".
A common theme in modern times, is to blame, mainly in circles of historians and authors, the poverty of nations on Empires of the past. Some say for example, that the wealth extracted from the Atlantic Slave Trade, was worth 300 billion pounds to the UK. These accusations are not harmless. A reparation bill would result in everyone who pays for it being a non offender and paying for something with no established economic link to modern day development. Some of these people will not have even been born until well into the future.
What I aim to do today then, is investigate these claims in a statistical manner, more precisely regression analysis, which is a tool for piecing out the cause of one variable over others. People, mainly those of the arts persuasion have frequently nagged at this form of testing. I was nearly banned from AskHistorians for protesting them removing an answer I had written they found to be statistically based. This to me has always seemed self immolating, as those who protest this sort of modelling are normally the first to form simple just so stories about how the west 'stole' its wealth. The beauty of regression analysis, is that it assumes every data point has its own individual story as well as also behaving to some extent by the rules of the model.
In the model:
- Y = β0 + β1X + βnX + ε
***The post is at present attempted to be recovered or if all else fails, rewritten***
(Everything from here is being rewritten because of a reddit bug).
2. The View from Economics
In Economics, there hasn't been the foibles of historians with regards analysis of historical data in a statistical fashion. Indeed, II have in another post on unpopularfacts discussed the two papers I know of which analyse colonialism, Feyrer and Sacerdote 2006 and Easterly and Levine 2012. Feel free also to check out u/GaslightEveryone 's source bank on this
Economic history can be split into roughly two periods, the Malthusian and the Industrial. The Malthusian economy was based on the premise that as land was fixed and productivity was low, workers would eat up production via population growth. The first few chapters of A Farewell to Alms cover this in detail, but the approximate function has been estimated as follows
Y(t) = AXαL1-α
Where A is technology, X is land, L is the amount of labour, Y(t) is national income at time t and alpha is a constant between 0 and 1. Check out Galor and Weil 1999 for more details.
Note that because the powers are between 0 and 1 an increase in one variable without another will result in a fall in marginal benefits from either an increase in land or an increase in labour.
Given this, living standards have been stagnant for most of history and only started changing with the industrial revolution in the 1800's.
This changed the model so that capital and machines could now be used in the place of
The formal model for modern economic development takes the form of a Cobb-Douglas function.
Y(t) = Kα (AN(t))1-α
Where K replaces X as the major throughput. The difference is capital can accumulate and so the function can increase in a linear fashion.
This means that if Colonialism handicapped the economic development of countries, it had to stop the accumulation of K, via one means or another. The important variable is not gold or jewels. The important thing is being able to produce lots, which is the essence of the economic problem.
Nonetheless lets move on.
The only locatable data on this topic that could be found that had nuances into the various different types of Colonies was this dataset if found which was published by Harvard on Colonies in Asia and Africa. This does not mean that the relationships found in this data aren't true in the Americas as well, we simply just don't have the data yet.
Data was also taken from the Maddison database for historical GDP estimates and the modern GDP estimates are from the World Bank Database
The data is available from this spreadsheet with this as its guide.
The analysis was conducted in RStudio with R 4.0 although Python and Stata are also appropriate tools.
With a small testing population (N = 82) a larger alpha of 0.1 is used. P values must be below this for the coefficient to be considered significant.
The dependent variable was the natural log of GDP per capita. This means that coefficients are measuring the % change in income given a point change in the independent variable. This is standard practice.
4. Statistical Analysis
Model 1: This is a simple regression model which shows no relationship between the amount of time colonised and modern day income.
Model 2: Here a negative relationship between the amount of investment a country received and modern income was picked up on; why this is I can't say I'm sure but it might be to do with colonies that were less developed originally being in turn less developed now. See Comin Easterly and Gong for further reading.
Model 3: In this model more covariates and most importantly a comparison of modern day education rates were used to see what predicts income. Unsurprisingly, what seems to matter is present day levels of human capital.
In this model the use of the change variables was implemented. These variables measured how much a colony changed in the given respect while being said colony. Only Political change was significantly picked up on, which makes sense for those who understand the stickiness of institutions. It's perhaps worth noting, that the political change variable was highly correlated with the World Bank transparency index (0.48). What this might mean is that countries not used to western governances do not have the institutions in place to counter corruption.
Model 5: Here I added in a constructed vector from Comin Easterly and Gong 2010, taking the average of 5 areas of technology in the year 1500 for given modern polities it found in the index that ranges from 0-5 that a one point increase in technology increases GDP by an astounding 149%. Once again Political change is also a significant variable and the years a country was a colony is positively associated with income in this model.
Final Model: This model was constructed using a stepwise algorithm to find the most powerful model that remains parsimonious. Here it can be seen that mining, migration from mother colonies, the intensity of colonisation and years a country was a colony all were associated with increases in income.
Time Spent as a Colony:
In all models there is a unanimous agreement that the amount of time a country was a polity has either a neutral or positive impact. The more complex models are more likely to pick up on this than the simpler ones however. For example in the final model, 100 years as a colony increased GDP by 27.9%.
Intensity of Colonisation:
High amounts of governmental oversight from the mother country in some models increased income by a reasonable amount. Other factors like the existence of plantations and extractive mining did not have an association with decreased income.
What did in some models have a negative association however was how much money the colony received from the mother country in the form of subsidies. This is likely related to the fact that countries with poorer technology in 1500 had higher subsidies (correlation -0.41).
Transformation of the polity:
Economic and Social changes the colony underwent had no relation to modern GDP. Political transformation did however. A possible hypothesis for this has been forwarded with Model 4's results. As Fukuyama pointed out in his work Origins of Political Order political institutions have to conform to the societies in which they exist and imposing western forms of governance was likely a hinderance for the cohesion of these societies.
Overall, on the basis of the data presented, there's significant reason to believe that Colonialism had either a negligible (most likely) or positive (less likely) effect on modern day income.